The recent defection of former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) has been met with skepticism by political analysts, lawyers, and activists, who describe it as inconsequential in Nigeria’s political landscape.
El-Rufai, a key figure in the APC, had been rumored to be engaging with opposition figures from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP) before ultimately joining the SDP, a move that took many by surprise. He cited dissatisfaction with the APC, particularly President Bola Tinubu’s decision to exclude him from his ministerial cabinet, as the reason for his defection.
Despite this, political observers argue that his move to the SDP lacks strategic weight. Barrister Kenneth Udeze, National Chairman of the Action Alliance, acknowledged the SDP’s efforts in party building but questioned its capacity to challenge the APC. Similarly, human rights lawyer Barrister Olalekan F. Ojo described El-Rufai’s move as a reflection of Nigeria’s fragmented opposition, stating that a lack of unity among opposition parties weakens their ability to hold the ruling party accountable.
Legal expert Barrister Emeka Iheonu echoed these sentiments, emphasizing that most Nigerian politicians prioritize personal gain over ideology. He called for independent candidacy to reduce the influence of political godfathers. Meanwhile, Professor John Ebhomien, a public affairs analyst and APC chieftain, dismissed El-Rufai’s defection as political “rascality,” asserting that the SDP lacks the structure and resources to challenge the APC in 2027.
Bishop Dr. Herbert Ekechukwu highlighted deep-rooted divisions within Nigeria’s opposition, citing ideological differences, personal ambitions, and a lack of trust among political actors as barriers to forming a formidable opposition front. He criticized opposition leaders for failing to unite in a way that could challenge APC dominance.
Others, such as Marxist analyst and AAC supporter Abiodun Aremu, described El-Rufai as a typical capitalist politician who shifts parties based on personal interests rather than ideology. He argued that none of Nigeria’s mainstream parties represent true opposition, as they all operate within the same political framework.
While El-Rufai’s defection has stirred debate, many analysts agree that unless opposition parties overcome internal divisions and focus on collective strategy, the APC remains firmly in control ahead of the 2027 elections.