On Monday, Canada is set to elect a new government to face threats of annexation from the United States and manage relations with President Donald Trump, whose trade war has dominated the campaign.
The Liberal Party, now led by new Prime Minister Mark Carney, seemed on track to lose to the Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre. However, a shift in polling followed Trump’s attacks on Canada, boosting Carney’s chances.
Carney, 60, who has never held elected office, replaced Justin Trudeau as prime minister just last month. A former investment banker and central bank governor in both Canada and Britain, Carney argues his global financial experience prepares him to manage Canada’s response to Trump’s tariffs. He’s promised to reduce Canada’s reliance on the U.S., a country he claims “we can no longer trust,” and to revitalize internal trade and expand economic opportunities abroad.
Throughout the campaign, Carney has repeatedly warned that Trump’s administration “wants to break us, so they can own us.” As the campaign neared its end, Carney said, “We don’t need chaos, we need calm. We don’t need anger, we need an adult.”
Meanwhile, Poilievre, a 45-year-old career politician, has focused on domestic issues that contributed to Trudeau’s unpopularity in the final years of his tenure, such as rising living costs. Poilievre has painted Carney as a continuation of Trudeau’s policies, arguing that only a Conservative government can tackle issues like crime, housing shortages, and other domestic priorities.
“You cannot handle another four years of this,” Poilievre said over the weekend. Though he has criticized Trump, Poilievre claims that a decade of Liberal governance left Canada vulnerable to a more hostile U.S.
Polls indicate a close race, but Carney is viewed as the favorite, with surveys showing voters think he is best equipped to handle Trump. Jeff Sims, a 46-year-old resident of Quebec, said Carney has “the pedigree” to be prime minister, pointing to his leadership of two central banks.
At a Conservative rally in Oakville, Janice Wyner, 70, voiced frustration with Canada’s current state, saying, “Canada is just in a mess. I’m 70 years old. It’s not even a country that I recognize, and I’m worried for my grandkids.”
For many, like Nadine Sokol, a 41-year-old from Ottawa, the U.S. threat is the top issue.
If the Liberals win, it would represent one of the most dramatic turnarounds in Canadian political history. Just months ago, the Conservatives led by more than 20 points, with Poilievre expected to become the next prime minister. However, Carney’s leadership and growing unease about Trump have reshaped the race.
Recent polls show the Liberals with 42.8% support, ahead of the Conservatives at 38.8%. Smaller parties, like the New Democratic Party (NDP) and Bloc Quebecois, will play a crucial role, as their performances in previous elections have impacted the Liberals’ seat count.
Canada’s 29 million eligible voters will elect 343 members of parliament, with 172 needed for a majority. While the Liberals won a majority in 2015, they have governed with a minority since 2019.